Can a bird flu Global Epidemic (Pandemic) be prevented?  Hopefully, but one never knows for sure. The best way to prevent a pandemic would be to eliminate the virus from birds, but it has become increasingly difficult. It's becoming doubtful if this can be accomplished in the near future.  But, plans are being made, for all possibilities.

 WHO (World Health Organization) would like to have a stockpile of antiviral medications, sufficient for 3 million treatment courses, by end 2006. Recent studies, based on mathematical modelling, suggest that these drugs could be used prophylactically near the start of a pandemic to reduce the risk that a fully transmissible virus will emerge or at least to delay its international spread, thus gaining time to augment vaccine supplies.

The success of this strategy, which has never been tested, depends on several assumptions about the early behaviour of a pandemic virus, which cannot be known in advance. Success also depends on excellent surveillance and logistics capacity in the initially affected areas, combined with an ability to enforce movement restrictions in and out of the affected area. To increase the likelihood that early intervention using the WHO rapid-intervention stockpile of antiviral drugs will be successful, surveillance in affected countries needs to improve, particularly concerning the capacity to detect clusters of cases closely related in time and place.

What strategic actions are recommended by WHO?

In August 2005, WHO sent all countries a document outlining recommended strategic actions for responding to the avian influenza pandemic threat. Recommended actions aim to strengthen national preparedness, reduce opportunities for a pandemic virus to emerge, improve the early warning system, delay initial international spread, and accelerate vaccine development.

Are we adequately prepared?

Actually, no. Despite an advance warning that has lasted almost two years, the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic. WHO has urged all countries to develop preparedness plans, but only around 40 have done so. WHO has further urged countries with adequate resources to stockpile antiviral drugs nationally for use at the start of a pandemic. Around 30 countries are purchasing large quantities of these drugs, but the manufacturer has no capacity to fill these orders immediately. On present trends, most developing countries will have no access to vaccines and antiviral drugs throughout the duration of a pandemic.

So, while it is certainly hoped that bird flu will be long forgotten,
the task of government scientific agencies, is to analyze risk factors, and prepare accordingly. Hoping for the best, to your health!